This thread by @fchollet, applied to Bayesianism, is the basic counterargument to the last ten years of “AGI as existential threat”.https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1010988618993655808 …
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Replying to @SimonDeDeo @fchollet
Intriguing thread. Thoughts on this?
@Plinz@ESYudkowsky1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MimeticValue @SimonDeDeo and
People that think that modeling the complexity and functionality of a mind is going to stay out of our reach for long (or forever) are probably unrealistic. To show limits of Bayes etc. we may need more mathematical proofs, and less motivated reasoning.
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Replying to @Plinz @MimeticValue and
"probably unrealistic" is, unfortunately, science fiction. Meanwhile Bayes itself (along with Decision theory) is internally consistent—no proof within the system will show its limits...
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Replying to @SimonDeDeo @Plinz and
What about Newcomb’s paradox in decision theory?
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Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @Plinz and
Either an equivocation on the word prediction, or atemporal (i.e., inconsistent with the assumption of updating based on new information). Lots of fun to propose to students, however!—a nice gauge of how religious they are about ML.
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Replying to @SimonDeDeo @Plinz and
I get that it is a theoretical game, but how is it inconsistent with updating based on new information? Do you just mean it’s a single play game?
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Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @Plinz and
Generically: there's an arrow of time in Bayes. You can learn (i.e., reduce your entropy over theories), but you can't consistently "forget". Newcomb's paradox doesn't have a consistent arrow of time.
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But what about inconsistencies with updating information if this is single instance game? Are you talking about the predictor being thermodynamically limited now?
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