In this example, you are mixing by mistake, like Trump but with much more intelligence, meteorology and climatology, 2 separate (not completely of course) scientific fields : meteorology prediction unit, the day ; climatologic scenarios units, the year, the decade => ≠ scales.
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Replying to @GirardForum @MimeticValue
I’m not sure what you are mixing but it’s all essentially history and the problem of induction in dynamic systems. Same predictability problems exist across domains. Prediction further out becomes less reliable so years, months worse than days.
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Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @MimeticValue
I agree. But meteorology gives good predictions for some days, about 1 or 2 weeks, even if it deals with dynamic/chaotic stuff requiring huge computers. Climatology studies climate since millions of years (studying very old ice, fossiles) and gives good scenarios for decades.
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Replying to @GirardForum @MimeticValue
Meteorology gives moderately good results for a few days, the ones on TV actually lie to you about the probabilities. Climate models may be accurate for a short while but not enough to give any real long range predictions. Best approach is precautionary principle imo.
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Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @MimeticValue
Precautionary principle (wise) goes with uncertainty. I think we are certain (no doubt) human action on climate is destructive. Uncertainty remains on PRECISE predictions, not on findings with OBVIOUS global consequences.pic.twitter.com/Qr7flnhVWv
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Replying to @GirardForum @Ahimsa_Satya_
The awareness of non-precision matters. My biggest fear is people thinking that they know how to cool the atmosphere, so they spray chemicals to counter global warming, but end up destroying ecosystems and killing everyone.
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Replying to @MimeticValue @GirardForum
Something like this. A seemingly simple solution with unknown extraneous effects on a dynamic system. They also often fail to see the lack of linearity so may take drastic measures to dampen something that will already dampen, etc.
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Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @GirardForum
Yes, this is terrifying. One day, some politician will try to "solve" climate change in a way that kills everyone in a global catastrophe because he thinks he knows the solution, because some corporation bribed him.
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The bad guy in Avengers who wipes out half the universe in the terrible terrible move Avengers: Infinite War
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