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Ahimsa_Satya_'s profile
Ahimsa
Ahimsa
Ahimsa
@Ahimsa_Satya_

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Ahimsa

@Ahimsa_Satya_

Exponential Growth Curve
Joined August 2017

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    1. Mimetïc Value‏ @MimeticValue Jun 6

      "Climate models are very good for understanding climate, but they are very poor for predicting climate." - Freeman Dyson

      4 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
    2. René Girard - Forum‏ @GirardForum Jun 6
      Replying to @MimeticValue

      Climate change because of human action has always been VERY predictable. Have you heard about Svante Arrhénius, a scientist of the end of the 19th century ? He saw the problem with coal. Changes due to gases are EASY to calculate. Found this, in english :https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/jun/30/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment2 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Mimetïc Value‏ @MimeticValue Jun 6
      Replying to @GirardForum

      Yeah, of course peiple can see that there will be environmental problems even 100 years ago, but that's not what Dyson or I mean by prediction. Prediction means that you have confidence in the likelihood of a particular event at a particular time. No model will tell you that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Mimetïc Value‏ @MimeticValue Jun 6
      Replying to @MimeticValue @GirardForum

      It's the same thing as scientists know which zones are more prone to earthquakes. That part is simple. Yet nobody can actually predict actual earthquakes until immediately before they happen. You can only determine general trends, not specific predictions.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Mimetïc Value‏ @MimeticValue Jun 6
      Replying to @MimeticValue @GirardForum

      For example, you can say that in 2050, average daily variance in temperature in France would be greater than in 2000 with a 80% confidence, but you can't predict what is the temperature on June 6, 2050 in Paris. Or the date the next big catastrophe will be here.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. René Girard - Forum‏ @GirardForum Jun 7
      Replying to @MimeticValue

      In this example, you are mixing by mistake, like Trump but with much more intelligence, meteorology and climatology, 2 separate (not completely of course) scientific fields : meteorology prediction unit, the day ; climatologic scenarios units, the year, the decade => ≠ scales.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Ahimsa‏ @Ahimsa_Satya_ Jun 7
      Replying to @GirardForum @MimeticValue

      I’m not sure what you are mixing but it’s all essentially history and the problem of induction in dynamic systems. Same predictability problems exist across domains. Prediction further out becomes less reliable so years, months worse than days.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. René Girard - Forum‏ @GirardForum Jun 7
      Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @MimeticValue

      I agree. But meteorology gives good predictions for some days, about 1 or 2 weeks, even if it deals with dynamic/chaotic stuff requiring huge computers. Climatology studies climate since millions of years (studying very old ice, fossiles) and gives good scenarios for decades.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Ahimsa‏ @Ahimsa_Satya_ Jun 7
      Replying to @GirardForum @MimeticValue

      Meteorology gives moderately good results for a few days, the ones on TV actually lie to you about the probabilities. Climate models may be accurate for a short while but not enough to give any real long range predictions. Best approach is precautionary principle imo.

      4:26 AM - 7 Jun 2018
      • 1 Like
      • Mimetïc Value
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. René Girard - Forum‏ @GirardForum Jun 7
          Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @MimeticValue

          Precautionary principle (wise) goes with uncertainty. I think we are certain (no doubt) human action on climate is destructive. Uncertainty remains on PRECISE predictions, not on findings with OBVIOUS global consequences.pic.twitter.com/Qr7flnhVWv

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Mimetïc Value‏ @MimeticValue Jun 7
          Replying to @GirardForum @Ahimsa_Satya_

          The awareness of non-precision matters. My biggest fear is people thinking that they know how to cool the atmosphere, so they spray chemicals to counter global warming, but end up destroying ecosystems and killing everyone.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Ahimsa‏ @Ahimsa_Satya_ Jun 7
          Replying to @MimeticValue @GirardForum

          Something like this. A seemingly simple solution with unknown extraneous effects on a dynamic system. They also often fail to see the lack of linearity so may take drastic measures to dampen something that will already dampen, etc.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        5. Mimetïc Value‏ @MimeticValue Jun 7
          Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @GirardForum

          Yes, this is terrifying. One day, some politician will try to "solve" climate change in a way that kills everyone in a global catastrophe because he thinks he knows the solution, because some corporation bribed him.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        6. Ahimsa‏ @Ahimsa_Satya_ Jun 7
          Replying to @MimeticValue @GirardForum

          Aren’t you thinking of Thanos?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Mimetïc Value‏ @MimeticValue Jun 7
          Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @GirardForum

          Unaware of Thanos

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        8. Ahimsa‏ @Ahimsa_Satya_ Jun 7
          Replying to @MimeticValue @GirardForum

          The bad guy in Avengers who wipes out half the universe in the terrible terrible move Avengers: Infinite War

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. End of conversation
        1. Ahimsa‏ @Ahimsa_Satya_ Jun 7
          Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @GirardForum @MimeticValue

          It seems to me that instead of complicated model we don’t seem to understand to make decisions we should just not do stupid things like digging up millions of gallons of dead plant and animals and burning them off into the atmosphere at a high rate. We only have one planet.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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