"Climate models are very good for understanding climate, but they are very poor for predicting climate." - Freeman Dyson
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Replying to @MimeticValue
Climate change because of human action has always been VERY predictable. Have you heard about Svante Arrhénius, a scientist of the end of the 19th century ? He saw the problem with coal. Changes due to gases are EASY to calculate. Found this, in english :https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/jun/30/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment2 …
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Replying to @GirardForum
Yeah, of course peiple can see that there will be environmental problems even 100 years ago, but that's not what Dyson or I mean by prediction. Prediction means that you have confidence in the likelihood of a particular event at a particular time. No model will tell you that.
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Replying to @MimeticValue @GirardForum
It's the same thing as scientists know which zones are more prone to earthquakes. That part is simple. Yet nobody can actually predict actual earthquakes until immediately before they happen. You can only determine general trends, not specific predictions.
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Replying to @MimeticValue @GirardForum
For example, you can say that in 2050, average daily variance in temperature in France would be greater than in 2000 with a 80% confidence, but you can't predict what is the temperature on June 6, 2050 in Paris. Or the date the next big catastrophe will be here.
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Replying to @MimeticValue
In this example, you are mixing by mistake, like Trump but with much more intelligence, meteorology and climatology, 2 separate (not completely of course) scientific fields : meteorology prediction unit, the day ; climatologic scenarios units, the year, the decade => ≠ scales.
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Replying to @GirardForum @MimeticValue
I’m not sure what you are mixing but it’s all essentially history and the problem of induction in dynamic systems. Same predictability problems exist across domains. Prediction further out becomes less reliable so years, months worse than days.
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Replying to @Ahimsa_Satya_ @MimeticValue
According to Pierre Larrouturou, another kind of people, non scientists, have a good overview on what's happening : re-insurers (insurers that assure insurance companies). They observe that the number of huge destructive climatic phenomenons is constantly increasing.
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It’s the same mathematics behind actuarial science as well actually which is closer to my field. In dynamical systems, predictions are all but impossible. With chaos theory you would need perfect model of the world w/ infinite precision in order to predict future events.
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