"Climate models are very good for understanding climate, but they are very poor for predicting climate." - Freeman Dyson
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I agree. But meteorology gives good predictions for some days, about 1 or 2 weeks, even if it deals with dynamic/chaotic stuff requiring huge computers. Climatology studies climate since millions of years (studying very old ice, fossiles) and gives good scenarios for decades.
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Meteorology gives moderately good results for a few days, the ones on TV actually lie to you about the probabilities. Climate models may be accurate for a short while but not enough to give any real long range predictions. Best approach is precautionary principle imo.
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Precautionary principle (wise) goes with uncertainty. I think we are certain (no doubt) human action on climate is destructive. Uncertainty remains on PRECISE predictions, not on findings with OBVIOUS global consequences.pic.twitter.com/Qr7flnhVWv
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The awareness of non-precision matters. My biggest fear is people thinking that they know how to cool the atmosphere, so they spray chemicals to counter global warming, but end up destroying ecosystems and killing everyone.
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Something like this. A seemingly simple solution with unknown extraneous effects on a dynamic system. They also often fail to see the lack of linearity so may take drastic measures to dampen something that will already dampen, etc.
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Yes, this is terrifying. One day, some politician will try to "solve" climate change in a way that kills everyone in a global catastrophe because he thinks he knows the solution, because some corporation bribed him.
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Aren’t you thinking of Thanos?
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Unaware of Thanos
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According to Pierre Larrouturou, another kind of people, non scientists, have a good overview on what's happening : re-insurers (insurers that assure insurance companies). They observe that the number of huge destructive climatic phenomenons is constantly increasing.
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You should look into Jean Pierre Dupuy’s work
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This is his book but he has some lectures - A Short Treatise on the Metaphysics of Tsunamis (Studies in Violence, Mimesis, & Culture) https://www.amazon.com/dp/1611861853/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_GArgBbJQPDNVD …
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I bought it but didn't read it yet. I appreciate Jean-Pierre Dupuy and listened to him on conferences on Youtube, read interviews. René Girard in Droopy mode
I globally agree with him too.
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