Will take a decade+ for smart & influential people to decide to change their minds and see impact of this... Unless smarter & more influential people seize it sooner.https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1003279438384193536 …
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Josh Wolfe Retweeted Ole Peters
Will take a decade+ for smart & influential people to decide to change their minds and see impact of this... Unless smarter & more influential people seize it sooner.https://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1003279438384193536 …
Josh Wolfe added,
It’s remarkable that, despite John Kelly’s insight dating back to the mid-50s, these ideas are still considered controversial. It is also frustrating that so many confuse the Kelly criterion with log utility, betraying a basic lack of understanding of the relevance of ergodicity.
A critique we've heard is that we merely restate Kelly's justification of log utility. Apparently, this is well known in economics. And yet Kelly was clear: the log is about LLN for repeated bets and nothing to do with utility! Those ignorant of history will repeat its failures.pic.twitter.com/yy6tfEuWwu
I’m still hopeful: Kelly failed to communicate that this about ergodicity, a concept well-known in statistical mechanics, that simply shows expected wealth is the wrong starting point. We’re very clear about the history: 17th-19th century stuff.
So was my comment on your post the other day wrong?
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