this is really cool
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Apparently you need to tell ChatGPT to both use probability theory, and to "think about this step by step" in order for it not to fall for the conjunction fallacy.
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Nearly no human thinks 'step by step'. The significance actually increases here.
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and even then it gets to the right answer via wrong reasoning. Do we need to assume a probability (0.1) of him being both a librarian and a fisher, after we established that these are probably not correlated? can't we just calculated it as 0.8 * 0.2? Or am I bad at probabilities?
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its able to do these types of analysis about everything millions of times per second in a billion directions
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It's definitely cool, but it's not "using" anything. It's a language model. The prompt simply produces that output. There is no inherrent "understanding" of the underlying process.
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