Human civilization is most likely to end closest to:
- 10 years6.4%
- 100 years25.4%
- 1,000 years28.5%
- 10,000 years39.8%
7,707 votesFinal results
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My intuition is that we invent AGI before 2050 and then humanity exists until the stars go out or we leave the universe entirely.
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There’s a non-zero chance than many of us alive today will still be alive 1,000,000 years from now.
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As we know it, 100 years. Humans in 1000 years will be barely recognizable and living in unbearable suffering
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Find it hard to believe that if we get through the next 1000 years we can’t get through the next 9000 after that. As has written, we probably live in a very “hingey” time in human history
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we've had nuclear missiles for less than a century and we've come seconds away from blowing up the entire planet with them on multiple occasions.
I'd say 100 years if we're lucky.
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Civilization probably doesn’t make it 1,000 years, but I think humans will still be around for much longer. Between climate change and nuclear weapons we just may end up more hunter gatherer again than what we look like now.
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I don’t think it’s likely to end within the next 100 years, but I think that if we make it 1000 years, it becomes even more unlikely, so I voted 10, just because I think that’s probably the timeframe Xi Jinping has given himself to try to conquer Taiwan.
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if we can survive the next 10-20 years, then our odds of long term survival are essentially 100%
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