Pick your social desirability strategy probability roll:
A) 95% you end up between 40-60% desirability; after this, prolonged dedicated effort can move u up a max of 10pts
B) 95% you end up between 0-70% desirability; after this, prolonged dedicated effort can move u up 30 pts
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B simply because I feel like I'm so low in the desirability department there's a significant likelihood I'd be higher than lower where I would currently put myself.
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A, easily. Max effort for both gives you 60% vs 65%. That 5% isn't worth the large increase in tail risk.
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B is higher on average and has a higher ceiling. The only benefit of A is you can’t be lower than 40. B makes more sense to pick.
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