How likely is it that Donald Trump will be elected again as president?
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Metaculus has him at a 30% chance of winning in 2024, which feels too low to me. Right now, I think he probably will win in 2024. metaculus.com/questions/1124
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Interested to see how this works out, what do polls generally say about how conservative/liberal your followers are?
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To estimate survey audience bias, was this asked in one form or another previously from the same audience? What were the results?
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"Kinda likely," but I honestly don't know. Two years is an eternity in politics, and the last few years have shown me that my predictions are often wrong.
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60%, voted "very likely". I like the guy but I hope I'm wrong because the yes side implies a far worse economic situation (though imo biased towards deflation spurred by real estate)
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