You predict after the current war resolves, Russia ____ have established full control over Ukraine
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full control wasn't a probable outcome even in the scenario of a quick russian success
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It will be a proxy state of Russia, with a compliant and pro Russian government that refuses NATO membership. Basically what the West did to Ukraine in 2014 under Obama.
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They won't control Galicia; the rest of Ukraine: maybe, it remains to be seen
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I think that it is most likely that Putin will have nominal control over all of Ukraine, but nothing approaching "full control".
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It’ll be split. Probably along dneiper. Both sides will be able to claim a win.
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High end result is occupation with heavy internal opposition, low end is withdrawal, medium is something like the winter war where they get territory and reduce FP independence of the invaded country
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