What's the chance that I (Aella) will have 120k or more twitter followers on this account?
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I forget how many followers i had a year ago but i think it was either 60 or 70k? so I gained either 30 or 20k.
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yeah you have to think in percentages rather than raw %. i loosely keep tabs on the follower counts of my friends and the high growth accounts grow in %. I actually can tell you what your follower counts were gimme a sec lol
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I grew less in 2021 than in 2020; this makes sense to me, in 2020 i was hustling onlyfans *hard* and the massive volume of eyes i was getting bled over at a rate of about 100 new twitter followers every day
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thinking on it more i might be overfitting my own model onto yours
maybe more conservatively I would say like 70% of 120k and 33% of 200k
but it really depends almost entirely on pure volume of poasting at this point, ie this is really a guess of "how much will aella tweet"
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idk i personally view the #1 factor as "how much attention do i get off twitter, in arenas that have a link to my twitter" and #2 factor as "how much do i have tweets that go viral". I think if i had 0 outside-twitter exposure i estimate id have 30k followers
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that does sound correct yea so maybe it's like one of those things where my overfitting of my model + my failure to account for the part of your model that's outside my POV ends up like–
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i would say you have like a resting 3-5% chance of getting main character'd in some way that will give you like 20-30k followers in a fell swoop at any time.
as more prominent/influential ppl follow you, the % odds that any rando would follow bc of social proof increases
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