What's the chance the stock market have a significant crash that lasts more than a month?
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What's the chance that we have clearly achieved herd immunity to covid, whether by infection or vaccine?
- 85-100%13.3%
- 50-85%29%
- 15-50%29%
- 0-15%28.6%
1,680 votesFinal results
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What's the chance you have experienced a major relationship change (e.g., single to seriously dating, married to divorced, etc.)
- 85-100%10.4%
- 50-85%16.6%
- 15-50%23.7%
- 0-15%49.3%
1,811 votesFinal results
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What's the chance we see another disease outbreak in addition to the coronavirus that results in 100+ deaths by the end of 2022?
- 85-100%13.1%
- 50-85%11.6%
- 15-50%25.9%
- 0-15%49.4%
1,610 votesFinal results
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What's the chance your weight end up 10 or more pounds heavier than you are now?
- 85-100%3.2%
- 50-85%10.1%
- 15-50%27.9%
- 0-15%58.8%
1,714 votesFinal results
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What's the chance that I (Aella) will have 120k or more twitter followers on this account?
- 85-100%26.1%
- 50-85%37.1%
- 15-50%27.3%
- 0-15%9.5%
1,373 votesFinal results
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Replying to
I forget how many followers i had a year ago but i think it was either 60 or 70k? so I gained either 30 or 20k.
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Replying to
yeah you have to think in percentages rather than raw %. i loosely keep tabs on the follower counts of my friends and the high growth accounts grow in %. I actually can tell you what your follower counts were gimme a sec lol
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Replying to
thinking on it more i might be overfitting my own model onto yours
maybe more conservatively I would say like 70% of 120k and 33% of 200k
but it really depends almost entirely on pure volume of poasting at this point, ie this is really a guess of "how much will aella tweet"
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Replying to
idk i personally view the #1 factor as "how much attention do i get off twitter, in arenas that have a link to my twitter" and #2 factor as "how much do i have tweets that go viral". I think if i had 0 outside-twitter exposure i estimate id have 30k followers
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