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*Both* gender critical and anti-gender-critical are getting mad at me for this one (in screenshots, not QTs), which really tickles me. To clarify for both, I find both trans women and ashkenazis great, I think being brilliant in physics or mathematics or whatever is admirable.

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Aella

@Aella_Girl

Nov 19, 2021

At this point, if I hear someone referring to an absolutely brilliant woman they deeply admire for her work in advanced theoretical physics or mathematics or something, I assign something like 50% probability to the woman being trans

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Do you have actual hard data on these correlations and have you tried to control for confounders/personal biases?

Dr. Dad, PhD

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It's tough with trans women because a lot of surveys didn't ask about both gender and birth sex until recently. Ashkenazi achievements are extremely well-documented, though.

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There’s a huge leap between “these populations are over-represented” and “I assume someone I hear of is in these populations by default”

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I don't assume they are by default, I assume there's a greater chance. I didn't go about this consciously and didn't have a previous bias, it comes out of many instances about hearing about a brilliant STEM-field woman and then finding out she's trans, almost more often than bio

8:02 PM · Nov 20, 2021

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“I didn’t have a previous bias” how do you ascertain smth like this? Also I think maybe there’s probably some selection bias going into remembering examples where they turned out to be trans cos that’s more noteworthy, bcos I don’t think the real % is anywhere near 50

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I suspect in lots of masculine-dominant areas the real % is not 50%, but a lot lower. It's also possible the actual % for me is closer to something like... 35%? I was being slightly glib.

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