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Conversation

What % chance do you assign to the probability that the 2020 president election was stolen from Trump? (as in, he rightfully won but the voting system/results were fudged in some way)

<5%
77.3%
6-20%
11.4%
21-80%
6.6%
81%+
4.7%

5,097 votesFinal results

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7

39

Replying to

Logarithmic scale would be more informative here, say <0.1%, 0.1%-1%, 1%-10%, >10%

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23

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I don't think most people distinguish between 0.1% and 1%

11:51 PM · Nov 7, 2021

Replying to

I think there is a difference between forward-looking predictions and likelihood estimates like this one. Agree that it would not be that meaningful for predictions, but seems like a different case here.

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@peterdevietien

Replying to

and

Meanwhile I think it should be linear… 25 50 75 100 🤷🏻‍♂️

Replying to

and

You are underestimating how many people here are math nerds.