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We can check how much evidence the data provides for the hypothesis that the "true" correlation is as observed, vs the hypothesis that the "true" correlation is 0 and the observed correlation is noise. Aella's data supports the former hypothesis ~10B times more than the latter.

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In other words: yes, sometimes the data is shaped such that it looks a little correlated, but we shouldn't read much into it b/c even the hypothesis saying the data is (normally distributed and) uncorrelated predicts a little observed correlation. Aella's data isn't like that.

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(And tbc, some of her likelihood ratios on the points near the center are small, like 5-to-1ish. And I agree that shouting "sample size!" alone doesn't do much. But some of the LRs she's reporting are *insane*, and I don't think they should be dismissed.)

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I don't have access to the source data, but I don't understand how that's possible. She has O(200) people for something like necrophilia. The null hypothesis is that 50% of them are to the left of her median responder, and 50% are to the right.

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(I know that's not precisely the same as the question she was asking, which instead checked which quadrant relative to (0,0) but it's extremely similar and easier to reason about).

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It's possible to get an extremely robust conclusion from a sample size of those 200. That would require >70% of them to be on one side. But she said they were weak correlations. 55% of them being right of median isn't enough to reject the null, much less at p<.0000000001

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If you had 10k people in each bucket, then yeah, 52% of a bucket being right-of-median would be extremely unlikely to occur by chance. But the test is only as good as your smallest bucket, and for the super rare ones, that's O(hundreds) at most.

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Necrophile data (men): no interest: 14445 slight interest: 573 moderate interest: 213 extreme interest: 281 im tryin to get the divisions by quadrant the data loading just takes forever

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authleft no interest: 4195 slight interest: 61 moderate interest: 29 extreme interest: 43 authright: no interest: 618 slight interest: 31 moderate interest: 15 extreme interest: 19 libleft: 5811 225 81 95 libright: 2588 91 33 44