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Aella_Girl's profile
Aella
Aella
Aella
Verified account
@Aella_Girl

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AellaVerified account

@Aella_Girl

whorelord http://aella.hns.to 

Austin
knowingless.com
Joined September 2012

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    1. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      But this is the thing that bothers me - people don't realize that proposing a selection bias is proposing another theory for the results, and that depending on the type of question asked, this theory they're proposing is often extremely unlikely.

      2 replies 2 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      It's like ppl just register that I'm asking through twitter, know that my twitter account doesn't have a good sampling of the population, and then assume this means that selection bias is a good theory for any sort of twitter poll finding. No! This isn't how it works!

      2 replies 0 retweets 45 likes
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    3. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      And I'm NOT saying that my childhood abuse/bdsm poll is conclusive, there's a lot of possible explanations for it and I'd want to replicate this in a better, more careful and detailed survey to check on other causes. But yelling 'selection bias' just makes me wanna punch you

      2 replies 0 retweets 42 likes
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    4. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      the way it's delivered to me is often a bad, lazy critique that doesnt understand how bias works or how it impacts things we check for. If you tell me *how* it might be selection bias then im happy to engage: what is your theory for the selection pressures on my respondents?

      2 replies 0 retweets 52 likes
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    5. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      If you're like 'hey aella, i think this might be mostly just due to selection bias because you have a high following in this one BDSM recovery from childhood abuse forum that you didn't know about", I'd be like whoah, that's a great point I had no idea

      9 replies 1 retweet 75 likes
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    6. Second Time's the Charm!‏ @TryTryAgain17 Sep 13
      Replying to @Aella_Girl

      There's another possibility -- when you ask two questions together, you may get a disproportionate interest in answering in the way that ties them together by people who believe the two things are connected and want to tell the world through your survey.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Second Time's the Charm!‏ @TryTryAgain17 Sep 13
      Replying to @TryTryAgain17 @Aella_Girl

      If you ask for A|B, A|Not B, Not A|B, Not A|Not B, if for some reason a lot of people who are A|B think it's *true and important that A caused B for them*, they may be more motivated than the other three groups to answer, so you may get a disproportionate number of their answers.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Dan Cooper‏ @DanielCoopreal Sep 13
      Replying to @TryTryAgain17 @Aella_Girl

      Exactly, it's clear the hypothesis being tested in the question. It's very likely that people who match the hypothesis will be motivated to answer.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13
      Replying to @DanielCoopreal @TryTryAgain17

      Aella Retweeted Aella

      https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1437470970059628546 …

      Aella added,

      AellaVerified account @Aella_Girl
      Replying to @TryTryAgain17
      Yes, true! I also often test this explicitly by asking questions together, and then also separate (at different times) to see if total % clusters are different.
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Second Time's the Charm!‏ @TryTryAgain17 Sep 13
      Replying to @Aella_Girl @DanielCoopreal

      I get that that's your general approach, but looking at this particular survey we can't see that there is such a check at work in your response.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13
      Replying to @TryTryAgain17 @DanielCoopreal

      the difference in % answers when i do the spot checks in other polls is usually much smaller than 15%, so I assume it's unlikely that this one (out of all the other loaded ones I've done) is subject to this 'identity effect' or whatever. But if i replicated with a study id

      10:52 AM - 13 Sep 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13
          Replying to @Aella_Girl @TryTryAgain17 @DanielCoopreal

          explicitly design it to try to prevent that

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Second Time's the Charm!‏ @TryTryAgain17 Sep 13
          Replying to @Aella_Girl @DanielCoopreal

          If it were me, I'd have a hard time feeling any confidence in the results. You may be onto something, but this is just so easy to manipulate. You feel this is loaded and other surveys have been loaded, but maybe this is extra loaded? Also, you have 83K followers. About 2K ...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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