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Aella_Girl's profile
Aella
Aella
Aella
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@Aella_Girl

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AellaVerified account

@Aella_Girl

whorelord http://aella.hns.to 

Austin
knowingless.com
Joined September 2012

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    1. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      Aella Retweeted Giovanni

      ok i get these comments ON THE REGULAR and here is an angry tweet thread about why they are wrong and should feel bad 1. ppl are always like, 'but selection bias tho.' Do you know what selection bias is, how it works, and why it's bad?https://twitter.com/_giovannimattei/status/1437462754949017604 …

      Aella added,

      Giovanni @_giovannimattei
      Replying to @Aella_Girl
      This is not an “effect”, Aella. This is a correlation ridden with sample selection.
      11 replies 2 retweets 97 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      Selection bias is when you get misleading effects or conclusions or whatever due to how you selected the ppl you're asking about. As in, if you're measuring how nice ppl are and then ask ppl to volunteer for your study, you'll only be measuring ppl nice enough to volunteer.

      3 replies 0 retweets 27 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      And to be clear, a lot of those studies you believe and use to shape your view of reality are drawing from pretty narrow samples anyway: college kids tryin to get good grades by participating in studies, or the classic WEIRD demographics.

      1 reply 1 retweet 33 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      My twitter followers are obvs not a representative sample of the population, I am VIVIDLY AWARE OF THIS i am not an idiot. They tend to be male, white, 25-35yo, disproportionately libertarian (and otherwise politically split), living in mostly the US.

      5 replies 1 retweet 41 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      And if I did something dumb like asking my twitter followers if they're into FPS video games and then using that number to extrapolate to the general population then yes your critique would be good, however unfortunately I am not in fact this dumb

      1 reply 0 retweets 54 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      And it's *okay* to ask selected populations about information likely to be heavily biased by the selection (like video games) as long as you interpret it in context and don't fail to consider that selection effects might have modified your results.

      1 reply 0 retweets 45 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      Things that *are* interesting and have higher chances of extrapolating are lots of types of correlations; in this case, I asked about BDSM and abusive childhoods. Maybe the correlation that showed up is due to selection bias, but how would that work?

      1 reply 0 retweets 33 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      I would have had to, somehow, disproportionately selected for not just people into BDSM, but for ppl into BDSM who were abused. My twitter must have some way of being that sort of dissuades non-abused BDSM people from following me (and *doesn't* dissuade non-abused non-BDSM ppl)

      1 reply 0 retweets 45 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      So we have two possible realities here - either I'm somehow having a strange selection effect that's very precise and cuts across two separate questions (bdsm and abuse), *or* there's an actual effect that correlates BDSM and childhood abuse. Of the two, the latter is less absurd

      3 replies 0 retweets 38 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      But this is the thing that bothers me - people don't realize that proposing a selection bias is proposing another theory for the results, and that depending on the type of question asked, this theory they're proposing is often extremely unlikely.

      2 replies 2 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
      Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

      It's like ppl just register that I'm asking through twitter, know that my twitter account doesn't have a good sampling of the population, and then assume this means that selection bias is a good theory for any sort of twitter poll finding. No! This isn't how it works!

      10:29 AM - 13 Sep 2021
      • 45 Likes
      • Arsenijs Håkan Vally Azar 🍄 140percentRob (he/him)♠️ Thought Cole Easton S. Yoshimura Zero Bliss
      2 replies 0 retweets 45 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

          And I'm NOT saying that my childhood abuse/bdsm poll is conclusive, there's a lot of possible explanations for it and I'd want to replicate this in a better, more careful and detailed survey to check on other causes. But yelling 'selection bias' just makes me wanna punch you

          2 replies 0 retweets 42 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

          the way it's delivered to me is often a bad, lazy critique that doesnt understand how bias works or how it impacts things we check for. If you tell me *how* it might be selection bias then im happy to engage: what is your theory for the selection pressures on my respondents?

          2 replies 0 retweets 52 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Sep 13

          If you're like 'hey aella, i think this might be mostly just due to selection bias because you have a high following in this one BDSM recovery from childhood abuse forum that you didn't know about", I'd be like whoah, that's a great point I had no idea

          9 replies 1 retweet 75 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. Manzell Beezy‏ @BeezyManzell Sep 13
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          But that's right. Twitter polls should not be trusted for anything beyond entertainment. I wouldn't even trust your poll results to be accurately representative of just your followers. I'm happy to answer, but I can't support drawing any conclusions from them.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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