how likely is it that agi (artificial general intelligence) will lead to the end or significant destruction of human civilization in the next 30 years?
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"Significant destruction of human civilization" is one of those cases where 1%, or even 0.01%, should not be rounded to 0%.
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30 years is just such a short time period for the “destruction of human civilization” bar. If we start now we'll outlast the 30 years (in some form) and it's somewhat questionable if we start within 30 years.
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In the next 30 years? I'd give it low single digits. We seem pretty far from agi but can't rule out some big leap forward particularly w/ quantum computing on the horizon.
I'm curious how people would rank order likelihood of different technological apocalypses. E.g. Grey goo
