Some deep part of me believes that people are only confident when they're very likely to be right, and I defer to confidence because *my own* bar for speaking confidently is pretty *damn* high. but no, turns out, ppl say confident things with a low accuracy bar *all the time*!
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How do you determine confidence? Implying via tone of voice, or asking the speaker how confident they are about what they’re saying?
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Sometimes I say things just to figure out what I really believe. Obviously can’t do this in public.
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I think a lot of it has to do with confirmation bias. People hear things that fit the narrative for what they believe and just blindly believe it so much that for them it’s reality.
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I've recently learned about the Dunning-Kruger effect and now I take very few confident people seriously. Maybe I use their thoughts as a jumping off point but I'm definitely more wary about accepting things point blank.
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I just wonder if listener interpreted confidence could be different than actual speaker confidence in the accuracy of what is said
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the issue to find out if people are genuine with the information is consistency, can they keep the information straight long term, in person I listen for voice inflection, movement, and if theirs anything behind the eyes. as a lunatic I can say anything with "real" conviction.
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One thing I think is key is that Joe or Jane Confidence is usually (not always) talking about a subject that's over their audiences' heads, and the audience buys into it and socially reinforces it among themselves. This is the part that's amazing to me.
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For about a year I worked with someone who everyone said was a genius. They would volunteer this if his name came up.
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Confidence isn't about being correct. It's about believing you're correct (or at least knowing how to make other people think you believe it). You can be wrong as hell and still be confident about your answer.
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Are you familiar with Jon Haidt’s elephant and the rider metaphor? It helps explain a lot of this.
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