Conversation

Aella
@Aella_Girl
Some deep part of me believes that people are only confident when they're very likely to be right, and I defer to confidence because *my own* bar for speaking confidently is pretty *damn* high. but no, turns out, ppl say confident things with a low accuracy bar *all the time*!
43
702
Aella
@Aella_Girl
I'm slow on the uptake; so many times I've been pulled in by a very confident speaker confidently saying things I don't really understand - then when I check, turns out he's actually wrong about quite a lot. This is super disorienting and I don't understand that at all.
3
125
Aella
@Aella_Girl
If you're dealing with a really complex or nuanced system, you should get an allocation of 1 confident thing to say per year; everything else you say should be "I suspect" or "it seems like this indicates".
3
101
Aella
@Aella_Girl
Replying to
@Aella_Girl
Which like, might also be valid and in some instances leads to good things, I don't know cause I don't understand it - but whatever it is, it's not the default way I assume ppl operate, which is "have a really damn high bar for expressing confidence"
11
92
S. Yoshi
@s_yoshi12
Replying to
@Aella_Girl
Are you familiar with the Dunning-Kruger Effect? Also, I have a few short essays examining the seemingly peculiar role of the ego (and it's proximity to knowledge) when an individual seeks to resolve cognitive dissonance they are experiencing.
1
Still Josh
@iamstilljosh
Replying to
@Aella_Girl
I don't think people like this are always aware of what they're doing. Some people just seem confident and thus are trusted, so their confidence is reinforced, I guess. They are, as you put it, "making particular maneuvers in social reality space"....
1
jorbs
@JoINrbs
Replying to
@Aella_Girl
i think you can have things you believe are too complex to ever understand, and it's possible to substitute a "good-enough" heuristic which you then place confident belief in so that you can continue your life. sometimes we get confused and think those heuristics are right though
eider abacus 🛡️
@abecedarius
Replying to
@Aella_Girl
I suspect it works in part as a costly signal that you have the savvy/allies to escape blame for being wrong. Better to be right, but that part supplies the "tails, we flip again". And people executing that strategy coordinate on arranging the context to make accurate blame hard
1
Show more replies