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Aella_Girl's profile
Aella
Aella
Aella
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@Aella_Girl

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AellaVerified account

@Aella_Girl

whorelord http://aella.hns.to 

Austin
knowingless.com
Joined September 2012

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    1. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Jul 6

      Some deep part of me believes that people are only confident when they're very likely to be right, and I defer to confidence because *my own* bar for speaking confidently is pretty *damn* high. but no, turns out, ppl say confident things with a low accuracy bar *all the time*!

      48 replies 30 retweets 745 likes
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    2. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Jul 6

      I'm slow on the uptake; so many times I've been pulled in by a very confident speaker confidently saying things I don't really understand - then when I check, turns out he's actually wrong about quite a lot. This is super disorienting and I don't understand that at all.

      3 replies 1 retweet 129 likes
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    3. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Jul 6

      If you're dealing with a really complex or nuanced system, you should get an allocation of 1 confident thing to say per year; everything else you say should be "I suspect" or "it seems like this indicates".

      3 replies 3 retweets 107 likes
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      Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Jul 6

      But for ppl who are very confident, particularly about very difficult subjects, what is going on in their heads? It seems like they're doing a separate thing from truth-finding, which is something like... deliberately making particular maneuvers in social reality space.

      10:33 AM - 6 Jul 2021
      • 4 Retweets
      • 136 Likes
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      11 replies 4 retweets 136 likes
        1. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Jul 6

          Which like, might also be valid and in some instances leads to good things, I don't know cause I don't understand it - but whatever it is, it's not the default way I assume ppl operate, which is "have a really damn high bar for expressing confidence"

          11 replies 1 retweet 98 likes
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        1. Evan Riggs‏ @EvanRiggss Jul 6
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          Human beings are terrible at figuring out the truth. They are great at managing their reputations. The Righteous Mind is a great book on this topic.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Shawna Marie‏ @ShawnaaMariee_ Jul 6
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          I bet "confidence" is a by-product of one of the big 5 personality traits. It probably has a strong correlation to extroversion.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. S. Yoshimura‏ @s_yoshi12 Jul 6
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          Are you familiar with the Dunning-Kruger Effect? Also, I have a few short essays examining the seemingly peculiar role of the ego (and it's proximity to knowledge) when an individual seeks to resolve cognitive dissonance they are experiencing.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. S. Yoshimura‏ @s_yoshi12 Jul 6
          Replying to @s_yoshi12 @Aella_Girl

          In my life I've found it amazing what people will say with gusto and conviction only to find that it's really themselves they're constantly trying to convince, often lacking the self-awareness to see this in themselves because of whatever variety of reasons

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Joshua Campbell‏ @iamstilljosh Jul 6
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          I don't think people like this are always aware of what they're doing. Some people just seem confident and thus are trusted, so their confidence is reinforced, I guess. They are, as you put it, "making particular maneuvers in social reality space"....

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Joshua Campbell‏ @iamstilljosh Jul 6
          Replying to @iamstilljosh @Aella_Girl

          ....but that doesn't have to be as calculating (or conscious) as it sounds. Like most of us, they're operating on social & behavioral cues as much as anything else, and in the right environment with the right set of personalities, that'll work.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. jorbs‏ @JoINrbs Jul 6
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          i think you can have things you believe are too complex to ever understand, and it's possible to substitute a "good-enough" heuristic which you then place confident belief in so that you can continue your life. sometimes we get confused and think those heuristics are right though

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        2. eider abacus‏ @abecedarius Jul 6
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          I suspect it works in part as a costly signal that you have the savvy/allies to escape blame for being wrong. Better to be right, but that part supplies the "tails, we flip again". And people executing that strategy coordinate on arranging the context to make accurate blame hard

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. eider abacus‏ @abecedarius Jul 6
          Replying to @abecedarius @Aella_Girl

          (I am not confident about all this)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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