Some deep part of me believes that people are only confident when they're very likely to be right, and I defer to confidence because *my own* bar for speaking confidently is pretty *damn* high. but no, turns out, ppl say confident things with a low accuracy bar *all the time*!
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Which like, might also be valid and in some instances leads to good things, I don't know cause I don't understand it - but whatever it is, it's not the default way I assume ppl operate, which is "have a really damn high bar for expressing confidence"
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Human beings are terrible at figuring out the truth. They are great at managing their reputations. The Righteous Mind is a great book on this topic.
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I bet "confidence" is a by-product of one of the big 5 personality traits. It probably has a strong correlation to extroversion.
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Are you familiar with the Dunning-Kruger Effect? Also, I have a few short essays examining the seemingly peculiar role of the ego (and it's proximity to knowledge) when an individual seeks to resolve cognitive dissonance they are experiencing.
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In my life I've found it amazing what people will say with gusto and conviction only to find that it's really themselves they're constantly trying to convince, often lacking the self-awareness to see this in themselves because of whatever variety of reasons
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I don't think people like this are always aware of what they're doing. Some people just seem confident and thus are trusted, so their confidence is reinforced, I guess. They are, as you put it, "making particular maneuvers in social reality space"....
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....but that doesn't have to be as calculating (or conscious) as it sounds. Like most of us, they're operating on social & behavioral cues as much as anything else, and in the right environment with the right set of personalities, that'll work.
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i think you can have things you believe are too complex to ever understand, and it's possible to substitute a "good-enough" heuristic which you then place confident belief in so that you can continue your life. sometimes we get confused and think those heuristics are right though
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I suspect it works in part as a costly signal that you have the savvy/allies to escape blame for being wrong. Better to be right, but that part supplies the "tails, we flip again". And people executing that strategy coordinate on arranging the context to make accurate blame hard
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(I am not confident about all this)
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