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Aella
@Aella_Girl
Some deep part of me believes that people are only confident when they're very likely to be right, and I defer to confidence because *my own* bar for speaking confidently is pretty *damn* high. but no, turns out, ppl say confident things with a low accuracy bar *all the time*!
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Aella
@Aella_Girl
I'm slow on the uptake; so many times I've been pulled in by a very confident speaker confidently saying things I don't really understand - then when I check, turns out he's actually wrong about quite a lot. This is super disorienting and I don't understand that at all.
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Aella
@Aella_Girl
Replying to
@Aella_Girl
If you're dealing with a really complex or nuanced system, you should get an allocation of 1 confident thing to say per year; everything else you say should be "I suspect" or "it seems like this indicates".
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Aella
@Aella_Girl
But for ppl who are very confident, particularly about very difficult subjects, what is going on in their heads? It seems like they're doing a separate thing from truth-finding, which is something like... deliberately making particular maneuvers in social reality space.
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Aella
@Aella_Girl
Which like, might also be valid and in some instances leads to good things, I don't know cause I don't understand it - but whatever it is, it's not the default way I assume ppl operate, which is "have a really damn high bar for expressing confidence"
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Davide Baroncelli
@apprentisorcier
Replying to
@Aella_Girl
I've noticed that people who do this then become incredibly aggressive when challenged (because they're not used to it) and soon resort to all fallacies in the book, to the point of irrationality and denying reality.
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