Some deep part of me believes that people are only confident when they're very likely to be right, and I defer to confidence because *my own* bar for speaking confidently is pretty *damn* high. but no, turns out, ppl say confident things with a low accuracy bar *all the time*!
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If you're dealing with a really complex or nuanced system, you should get an allocation of 1 confident thing to say per year; everything else you say should be "I suspect" or "it seems like this indicates".
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But for ppl who are very confident, particularly about very difficult subjects, what is going on in their heads? It seems like they're doing a separate thing from truth-finding, which is something like... deliberately making particular maneuvers in social reality space.
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Which like, might also be valid and in some instances leads to good things, I don't know cause I don't understand it - but whatever it is, it's not the default way I assume ppl operate, which is "have a really damn high bar for expressing confidence"
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I've noticed that people who do this then become incredibly aggressive when challenged (because they're not used to it) and soon resort to all fallacies in the book, to the point of irrationality and denying reality.
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I remember a guy who was proven wrong by a 10 second googling and started yelling that he spends his life getting informed and his sources are a lot deeper than "your little Google". His friends in the meantime trying to bury themselves under the table.
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