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One button kills a random person somewhere in the world; they just fall over dead. The other button increases the likelihood of nuclear war in the next 5 years by 0.5% You have to press one (just once!). Youd rather

Kill random person
73.5%
Up nuclear war chance .5%
26.5%

2,608 votesFinal results

1:21 AM · May 30, 2021

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I can’t believe I’m in the minority here

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The random person might be me!

@NGoodEnoughMayb

May 30, 2021

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@Aella_Girl

Nuclear war button, if 0.5% is significant i think its best to happen sooner rather than later

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But what if you kill the person who would've prevented nuclear war?

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Expected value theory says if you increase nuclear war you kill 30 million people

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I'm not good enough at math or aware enough of the risk of nuclear war so ... Eyes closed and mash a button?

Dr. Dad, PhD

@GarrettPetersen

May 30, 2021

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@Aella_Girl

Obviously better to kill one person than to slightly increase the chance of wiping out over 7 billion.

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if now the chance is 1% does the chance become 1.5% or 0.01*1.005?

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Tbh I would do it myself with my bare hands is required. Or much worse.

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Our best hope is to delay damage as much as possible and find a solution in the meanwhile. So, rather than instant decision of someone being dead I'd choose a more probabilistic decision of raising the chances of nuclear war.