My sense of 'being able to navigate the world accurately' has been less 'learning facts about the world', like I predicted, and more 'learning how to accurately gauge the trustworthiness of experts.'
14
59
514
Conversation
Turns out, experts are wrong, a lot! But how do you know when they're wrong, if you're not an expert? If you learn a fact that seems to contradict an expert, how do you know if this is important or if you're simply too ignorant to know how that fact is irrelevant?
2
3
94
It's hard to figure this out, but lately I pay attention to a few things
1. If an expert is talking about something outside their field, they're much more likely to be wrong and also less likely to be noticed, because they have confidence and authority that reassures everyone.
1
1
77
2. If an expert is subject to incentives: anything ideological, in any direction, is a big pressure to not think accurately - so for example "professor of feminist studies at UC Berkeley" or "Famous Qanon ex-CIA youtuber"? Be more suspicious.
4
3
75
3. If what they say simply don't make sense to you. This is a bit vague, because a lot of experts are right even if you don't understand them. But if you are trying, really hard, to genuinely understand, if you're not ideologically opposed, but something still seems off? Be sus.
4
2
73
4. If the requirements to become an expert in their field require heavily on memorization, instead of paradigm-challenging problem solving. Lots of credentials are just meant to show you know the existing information well, and don't mean you're good at accurate predictions.
2
3
103
Expertise is very often a fuzzy veneer of authority that we bestow on a few select people for being able to pass the right tests. And being able to pass tests is good, but we still need to be informed and discerning in how we choose to give out our trust.
Replying to
When I was a scientist, we worked on mathematic modeling... we would always say... Everything is a model, all models are wrong, but some models are useful. I apply that to most things...
3
Replying to
Social circle is a big one.
If you imagine when they go to dinner parties *everyone* they meet shares their worldview, and their prediction fits this worldview, be suspicious.
We know that, like everyone, experts make decisions emotionally, then post-rationalise.
2
Replying to
attm the most obvious "experts" are PhD in field X. so we give credence to people having spent 4-5y working on something that was eventually validated by peers. this obviously doesn't imply that the person is an expert, but that's the best societal <10s credential/proxy for now?
Replying to
I would add to this list consistent and repeated track record in applying their expertise in reality.
Replying to
This is such a hard subject to deal with. And often people who ~are experts~ are just as easily taken in by ... false experts?
Replying to
More than any other thing, what helps me is to examine a genuine controversy with experts on both sides, and follow the back and forth.