My sense of 'being able to navigate the world accurately' has been less 'learning facts about the world', like I predicted, and more 'learning how to accurately gauge the trustworthiness of experts.'
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When I was a scientist, we worked on mathematic modeling... we would always say... Everything is a model, all models are wrong, but some models are useful. I apply that to most things...
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Social circle is a big one. If you imagine when they go to dinner parties *everyone* they meet shares their worldview, and their prediction fits this worldview, be suspicious. We know that, like everyone, experts make decisions emotionally, then post-rationalise.
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attm the most obvious "experts" are PhD in field X. so we give credence to people having spent 4-5y working on something that was eventually validated by peers. this obviously doesn't imply that the person is an expert, but that's the best societal <10s credential/proxy for now?
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I would add to this list consistent and repeated track record in applying their expertise in reality.
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This is such a hard subject to deal with. And often people who ~are experts~ are just as easily taken in by ... false experts?
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More than any other thing, what helps me is to examine a genuine controversy with experts on both sides, and follow the back and forth.
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