If you flip a coin twice, whats the probability of getting two heads?
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Did you take into account that other 23% could have get a correct answer by guessing?
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Next poll: If you get heads on your first coin flip, what are the odds that the second coin flip will be heads?
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My "real" answer is actually about 25.6%; IIRC heads has closer to a 50.5% chance of coming up on actual coins (which gives 25.5%), and there's some small chance that if I'm flipping a coin I may have been given a more severely biased coin.
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bbc.co.uk/news/uk-198016
Interestingly this same question was asked of the UK parliament a while ago which (to me) produced shocking and clear differences in results.
Results which by the way, are far worse than your current average.
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Basic probabilistic reasoning gives an answer of 25% (event space being {HH, HT, TH, TT}. However, 33% should have been an option, given this closely related actually confusing paradox - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Gi
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Ooooh, now do a poll saying “you flip a coin. It lands on heads. You flip again. What is odds of landing on heads this 2nd time?” Gamblers fallacy is a pretty common thing I think.
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I wonder how the response to this varies with the wording changed to throwing a heads first, and then a tails second. Is it easier to see one outcome of set {HH HT TH TT} is 1/4 if the sides change? This the gambler's fallacy yeah, 7 just came up on roulette it won't be 7 again.
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