Wikipedia lists the Covid lab hypothesis origin under misinformation, but afaik it's a very plausible theory? This is the first time I've run into a big and confident wikipedia thing that seems wrong.
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Metaculus currently gives 15% probability to the Hubei lab theory being true
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I'm not sure if that's true, but regardless 15% seems high enough chance that it shouldn't be classed confidently as misinformation
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Yeah, I agree that it is too unclear at this stage to call it misinformation to suggest that it is possible or plausible as the origin. I think it would be misinformation to say it is a sure thing, or that it has already been proven, though.
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and make me feel like it’s way higher than a 15% chance of being true.
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There is another question based on whether by 2024 at least two of these groups will say that it most likely came from a lab. The median probability is 17%.
metaculus.com/questions/3682
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This is a literal community poll, no more (or less) valid than a google poll posted on your subreddit/discord/w.e. of choice. It says a small bit about the population taking the poll and absolutely nothing about the actual validity of the claim.
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