Wikipedia lists the Covid lab hypothesis origin under misinformation, but afaik it's a very plausible theory? This is the first time I've run into a big and confident wikipedia thing that seems wrong.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation …
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Yeah, I agree that it is too unclear at this stage to call it misinformation to suggest that it is possible or plausible as the origin. I think it would be misinformation to say it is a sure thing, or that it has already been proven, though.
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@BretWeinstein and@HeatherEHeying make me feel like it’s way higher than a 15% chance of being true.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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There is another question based on whether by 2024 at least two of these groups will say that it most likely came from a lab. The median probability is 17%. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/ …pic.twitter.com/9sdJdNja7K
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So I would file this one under "Fairly unlikely, but plausible" for now, pending more information. It remains to be seen what the WHO investigation will turn up - but having waited an entire year, I doubt they'd find much evidence if it had come from the lab.
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This is a literal community poll, no more (or less) valid than a google poll posted on your subreddit/discord/w.e. of choice. It says a small bit about the population taking the poll and absolutely nothing about the actual validity of the claim.
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Well, there is an established track record for Metaculus https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/ …
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That is 75% untrue.
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