Metaculus currently gives 15% probability to the Hubei lab theory being truehttps://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/ …
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I'm not sure if that's true, but regardless 15% seems high enough chance that it shouldn't be classed confidently as misinformation
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the version of the theory being pushed by li-meng yan and the epoch times (IIRC) was intentional design and release, not a mere lab leak. it bears little resemblance to the lab leak hypothesis that's now being taken seriously
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how sure are we China didn't design & release? i try not to underestimate people/organizations, and in terms of global power shifts covid couldn't have worked out much better for them. Obviously I am not confident it's true, but I consider it a possibility.
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It’s not plausible. It’s incredibly unlikely. It’s not zero chance, but neither is the hypothesis that it came from an alien meteor. Unless there’s serious evidence it just doesn’t hold up. No one would design a virus like this because because 2020 no one knew viruses worked in
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Such a way. It could be possible that it was a natural virus they studied that got out. But why is that any more likely than just a repeat of what happened with SARS or with 1918 flu or 1890 coronavirus ?
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That hypothesis really shallowly researched by Wikipedia. No mention of gain of function research on bats, the Newsweek article, SARS having accidentally escaped twice from the lab previously, China deleting the labs research history etc...
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I believe there are two different theories which are often confused with each other. One is that COVID was engineered in a lab which is silly. The other is that the first human infection came from a leak at a lab that was studying coronaviruses, which is plausible.
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The only type of virus which might be present in a lab engaged in gain-of-function research would be an engineered one. I think the key distinction is intent: unintentional lab leak vs bio-weapon.
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