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What likelihood do you assign that the United States will see a civil war in the next 5 years with more than 500 deaths? Indirect deaths (e.g., covid deaths due to policy) do not count. Accumulated deaths due to skirmishes ideologically unrelated to each other do not count.

<1% chance
37.1%
1-10% chance
40.7%
11-50% chance
15.3%
51% chance or higher
6.9%

2,481 votesFinal results

11:17 PM · Jan 7, 2021

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Civil wars aren't the same thing as 500 deaths.

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How do you define civil war? IRA-type attacks could easily get to 500 deaths but probably wouldn't be called a war.

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The U.S. armed services are perfectly capable of putting down insurrection without major casualties. Even in the event of an armed uprising, I'd be shocked if there were over 500 deaths.

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A Civil War with mobilised armies clashing is extraordinarily unlikely. But an 'irregular war' like in Northern Ireland during the Troubles is well within the realms of possibility given the way things are escalating in the US.

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I estimate a 10% chance in the next 5 years, but about 50% within 10 years. You might like to read "War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations" by Peter Turchin. It addresses this very issue.

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My answer is skewed by the fact 500 deaths is such a low number to get to in 5 years

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