Civil wars aren't the same thing as 500 deaths.
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The bill tweeted yesterday to punish for voting no is a good start. Keeping Baathists out of government in Iraq fueled theirs. Nothing like starving people.
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How do you define civil war? IRA-type attacks could easily get to 500 deaths but probably wouldn't be called a war.
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The U.S. armed services are perfectly capable of putting down insurrection without major casualties. Even in the event of an armed uprising, I'd be shocked if there were over 500 deaths.
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The events yesterday should demonstrate how vulnerable we can be.
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Call me naive, but I think we're past the worst of it. People will be bitter about this for a long time, but yesterday was the inflection point and things will cool down now. There will be bitterness and a lot of animosity, but no war.
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A Civil War with mobilised armies clashing is extraordinarily unlikely. But an 'irregular war' like in Northern Ireland during the Troubles is well within the realms of possibility given the way things are escalating in the US.
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I estimate a 10% chance in the next 5 years, but about 50% within 10 years. You might like to read "War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations" by Peter Turchin. It addresses this very issue.
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