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Aella_Girl's profile
Aella
Aella
Aella
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@Aella_Girl

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AellaVerified account

@Aella_Girl

whorelord http://aella.hns.to 

Austin
knowingless.com
Joined September 2012

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    Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl Jan 7

    What likelihood do you assign that the United States will see a civil war in the next 5 years with more than 500 deaths? Indirect deaths (e.g., covid deaths due to policy) do not count. Accumulated deaths due to skirmishes ideologically unrelated to each other do not count.

    3:17 PM - 7 Jan 2021
    • 3 Retweets
    • 17 Likes
    • ariel 🤘🏼 Joshua Gerald Butler Melinda Wang Cosmo Craig Shaw Fred Mongenel III Kazeneko JamesonLaw Woody.
    14 replies 3 retweets 17 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Bishop  🇮🇱‏ @BishopFromArk Jan 7
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        Civil wars aren't the same thing as 500 deaths.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Luke Vaxhacker, Fully Vaxxed Healing sans Appendix‏ @Luke_Vaxhacker Jan 7
        Replying to @BishopFromArk @Aella_Girl

        The bill tweeted yesterday to punish for voting no is a good start. Keeping Baathists out of government in Iraq fueled theirs. Nothing like starving people.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. alec‏ @alecbzrr Jan 7
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        How do you define civil war? IRA-type attacks could easily get to 500 deaths but probably wouldn't be called a war.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Charlie Sanders‏ @CharlieSand3rs Jan 7
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        The U.S. armed services are perfectly capable of putting down insurrection without major casualties. Even in the event of an armed uprising, I'd be shocked if there were over 500 deaths.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Cop Rick‏ @baconfivezero Jan 7
        Replying to @CharlieSand3rs @Aella_Girl

        The events yesterday should demonstrate how vulnerable we can be.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. SacKings‏ @SacKings20 Jan 7
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        Call me naive, but I think we're past the worst of it. People will be bitter about this for a long time, but yesterday was the inflection point and things will cool down now. There will be bitterness and a lot of animosity, but no war.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. James Edwards‏ @TheNadohs Jan 7
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        A Civil War with mobilised armies clashing is extraordinarily unlikely. But an 'irregular war' like in Northern Ireland during the Troubles is well within the realms of possibility given the way things are escalating in the US.

        1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
      3. Show replies
      1. Scott R. Driver‏ @ScottRDriver Jan 7
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        I estimate a 10% chance in the next 5 years, but about 50% within 10 years. You might like to read "War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations" by Peter Turchin. It addresses this very issue.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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