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Sometimes, my friends wonder why I get so upset by woke stuff. It doesn’t have power, they say. It’s not actually gonna affect anything, they say.
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The US CDC is going to recommend that 'essential workers' are vaccinated before the over-65s, despite their *own modelling* showing this will result in more deaths. Why? They say it is unethical to prioritise the elderly because they are not racially diverse enough. THREAD.
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David's thread is a bit unfair. The original publication claims a negligible improvement in lives saved when the vaccine is introduced to >65 compared to HCPs, especially in the case where disease incidence is falling (which it should be after a peak event like the holidays)
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The report feels like someone had to paste together a lot of bullshit reasoning to justify something too sophisticated for a CDC report (e.g. that it’s a particular, deontological moral good to vaccinate those that are forced to endure exposure)
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I don't think the CDC's alleged rationale is a good one, but I do think it's a good idea to vaccinate essential workers early. Essential workers interact with lots of people. The elderly can stay home.
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So, here's a utilitarian question. Are we optimizing for lives or optimizing for life? Because it's not inherently obvious to me that some amount more dead elderly is worse than some amount more young people afflicted with lifelong complications as a result of infection.
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It is WAY more complicated than that. The mention of racial diversity being under represented in 65+ group is very minor and there are a lot of moving parts to consider.
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