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Conversation

Prediction: Will Trump win the 2020 presidential elections?

High confidence yes
12.9%
Low confidence yes
26.4%
Low confidence no
42.4%
High confidence no
18.3%

4,261 votesFinal results

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34

Replying to

Statistically, it's remote that he wins a fair contest. He's already beaten the odds once, so a casino would be getting him a room and nice meal to take the winnings back. To hit on two less than 10% chances in a row is factorially remote.

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1

Replying to

I'm not sure this is how probability works

5:38 PM · Oct 24, 2020

Replying to

How so? You may very well be right, just curious.

1