body { -ms-overflow-style: scrollbar; overflow-y: scroll; overscroll-behavior-y: none; } .errorContainer { background-color: #FFF; color: #0F1419; max-width: 600px; margin: 0 auto; padding: 10%; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; } .errorButton { margin: 3em 0; } .errorButton a { background: #1DA1F2; border-radius: 2.5em; color: white; padding: 1em 2em; text-decoration: none; } .errorButton a:hover, .errorButton a:focus { background: rgb(26, 145, 218); } .errorFooter { color: #657786; font-size: 80%; line-height: 1.5; padding: 1em 0; } .errorFooter a, .errorFooter a:visited { color: #657786; text-decoration: none; padding-right: 1em; } .errorFooter a:hover, .errorFooter a:active { text-decoration: underline; } #placeholder, #react-root { display: none !important; } body { background-color: #FFF !important; }

JavaScript is not available.

We’ve detected that JavaScript is disabled in this browser. Please enable JavaScript or switch to a supported browser to continue using twitter.com. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.

Terms of Service Privacy Policy Cookie Policy Imprint Ads info © 2023 Twitter, Inc.

Conversation

Prediction: Will Trump win the 2020 presidential elections?

High confidence yes
12.9%
Low confidence yes
26.4%
Low confidence no
42.4%
High confidence no
18.3%

4,261 votesFinal results

6:38 AM · Oct 24, 2020

Replying to

Statistically, it's remote that he wins a fair contest. He's already beaten the odds once, so a casino would be getting him a room and nice meal to take the winnings back. To hit on two less than 10% chances in a row is factorially remote.

2

1

Replying to

I'm not sure this is how probability works

1

7

Show replies

@peterdevietien

Replying to

Would you be okay with me copying this poll?

1

Jackson Meholff

Replying to

This is as accurate as the polls during the 2016 campaign.

Replying to

Correction: he will cheat the election

2

2

Replying to

Yes

Replying to

Even if we try to believe he will not, I fear that most likely he will.

Liberty, or Slavery?

Replying to

I avoided the other "trump or biden polls" but I liked this one more. 👍

5

@shaylikesstuff

Replying to

I just have this pit in my stomach that tells me he will win again. I've resigned myself to it with the knowledge that if I'm wrong, it will be a wonderful surprise.

1

1