Is this about the reporting or the actual suicide rate?
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Predictions.
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The best argument for lower rates I can think of: There is allegedly a post-holiday suicide spike. Quarantine precludes many traditional holiday celebrations, be it Christmas or New Year's Eve.
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That's a common myth. Suicides peak in springtime, in both hemispheres.
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"Does the suicide rate increase or decrease on valentines day?" Similar vibes, except this one is a bit more political since people would use this to justify avoiding another quarantine if a similar pandemic showed up later. Correlation is not causation.
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IMO the strongest argument for lower rates is that quarantine reduces the number of stressful interactions w/ people, which could drive more suicides than loneliness. I think that's unlikely though.
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I find it very hard to believe stress causes more suicides than loneliness. Do people say that?
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One expects that economic stress and social isolation would increase suicides. However, Japan has seen a large drop in suicide this year compared to last, attributed to a reduction in work/school-related stressors.
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I don't see how the suicide rate wouldn't go up. But this rise is statistically insignificant compared to the lives saved by lockdown. Epidemeological models estimated up to 500k dead in the UK without lockdown measures, the increace in suicides is thus proportionally negligible.
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how do you even separate the increase from quarantine vs the increase from living in a pandemic hell year? If there was zero quarantine this year would still be hell, and suicides would still increase.
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