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This one aged well.

Quote Tweet

What level of impact do you predict the coronavirus will end up having on your city?

Show this poll

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a lot of things like this have not aged well

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Replying to @elonmusk and @PPathole

Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April

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I kinda don't like that one. He said 'based on current trends' which was accurate.

8:00 PM · Jul 23, 2020

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yeah but one thing i say is "you can never account for human stupidity just try and plan around it".

@idontwa86202030

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I guess this was *technically* correct at the time, but I distinctly remember thinking that this was a stupid prediction even back then, which was pretty much public opinion at that time IIRC. So not really any better in my book

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You can't really make that kind of prediction with anything with exponential growth. What looks small at first can blow up quickly (which is the whole point of exponential). You can't predict the outcome of a 1000 mile trip by the first mile (which is what Elon did).

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