So the plan is to just... everybody hide indoors until... what happens?
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It's relative. China was able to massively curtail deaths by spreading it out over just a few months.
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No, China didn't flatten the curve. They suppressed the virus. They're not at herd immunity; they continue to be at risk of imported cases, and will be at risk of needing to lock down again if the virus is reintroduced.
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We are already doing phase 1 testing on a vaccine and Germany is saying they will have a vaccine by the fall. We flatten the curve to avoid a 7%+ death rate they have in Italy by having hospitals less overwhelmed on that initial spike. Car crashes, heart attacks etc all more risk
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If we isolate + test, we can then focus on isolating the infected, and ease up on the general isolation. S Korea is beating it without any lockdowns (due to rapid testing/tracking). We can get there by scaling up testing + time I think.
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I'd say until hospitals have enough supplies to deal with rising cases (such as n95 masks) and more rapid and dynamic testing allows us to track outbreaks better
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but nobody is talking about how to provide hospitals with those supplies! in China, they built whole new hospitals in days!
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The actual realistic plan is to not flatten the curve but to eradicate as much as possible. Once the case count is down enough, and testing ubiquitous, possibly letting up on some quarantining while aggressively pursuing local outbreaks.
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I think the best strategy might be to impose lockdowns until the region in question has no unaccounted new infections for two weeks.
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What do you mean by region? Things that work for localized epidemics do not work when new infections can come in from anywhere. We can do this temp stop and ramp up hospitals/testing/treatment the best we can and I was yelling for it 10 days ago, but it is /not/ a long term plan.
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