So the plan is to just... everybody hide indoors until... what happens?
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Correct. Hopefully we can vaccinate against this, otherwise it's not gonna be good.
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I think the level of social distancing we're doing won't even be enough to save the medical system. We can also increase capacity by buying time or decrease demand with anti-virals and a vaccine.
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By buying time to produce more hospitals, ventilators, face masks, sanitizer, etc
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Italy is saying it might have to forgo treating 80yo + patients because their Healthcare system is so overwhelmed. Maybe just just chill at home and give them time to create a vaccine and get it out there.
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no the ten years I think was estimates of how much time you'd need to literally "flatten the curve" to where we'd be OK. there's a (more near) point at which the cases begin to diminish / day rather than increase / day, which would start (over)taxing the system less
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by "be OK" in above statement I meant "would be completely at or under healthcare capacity" sorry if that was confusing.
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It's not just flattening curve, but riding initial wave. We will be better at dealing with subsequent waves -- test+isolate, trace to others, test+isolate them, etc. First wave caught us unprepared, followups we can hopefully handle like Singapore til herd immunity or vaccine.
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Yup very much this, well understand the strains more, have better understanding of how to combat it, vaccine eventually, systems more prepared, better systems in place for early detection and prevention (see Singapore, HK, Israel, China atm w/temp cameras)
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The theory is to social distance for several weeks to stop the spread enough that testing can catch up then adopt the S. Korean model and resume most social life/biz until we get a vaccine or effective treatment. If testing doesn't catch up then economy tanks &/or millions die.
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Link those projections? The most pessimistic I've seen is 6-8 months.
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