So the plan is to just... everybody hide indoors until... what happens?
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So to slow the spread that it passes through the entire population over a longer period of time? But projections I've seen said this would likely take like... ten years or something.
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It's not just flattening curve, but riding initial wave. We will be better at dealing with subsequent waves -- test+isolate, trace to others, test+isolate them, etc. First wave caught us unprepared, followups we can hopefully handle like Singapore til herd immunity or vaccine.
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Yup very much this, well understand the strains more, have better understanding of how to combat it, vaccine eventually, systems more prepared, better systems in place for early detection and prevention (see Singapore, HK, Israel, China atm w/temp cameras)
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Correct. Hopefully we can vaccinate against this, otherwise it's not gonna be good.
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no the ten years I think was estimates of how much time you'd need to literally "flatten the curve" to where we'd be OK.
there's a (more near) point at which the cases begin to diminish / day rather than increase / day, which would start (over)taxing the system less
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The theory is to social distance for several weeks to stop the spread enough that testing can catch up then adopt the S. Korean model and resume most social life/biz until we get a vaccine or effective treatment. If testing doesn't catch up then economy tanks &/or millions die.
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I expect once we get into the initial overloading of the medical system there will be steps taken to drastically increase capacity so we can handle a bigger curve. Like those quick-build hospitals they constructed in China.
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If you reduce R0 below 1 the number of cases stays tiny. Meaning that even if you keep getting new cases you can manage them with testing and isolation.
Virus usually has R0 2-3. Not much headroom. Social distancing seems capable of getting it below 1 pretty easily.
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Based on fixed healthcare capacity and 5% / 20% patients are critically / seriously ill. Healthcare capacity can be expanded and it's likely critically / seriously ill is closer to 1% / 5%.
Antivirals and other treatments will also be improved.