My personal risk assessment strategy is to do something like: if my chance of car accident is 1/450 per year, would I pay one car accident in order to get 450 years of driving? If yes, then I drive. I do this for nearly all my risk assessments and I'm wondering how common it is.
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Consider how the categorical imperative interacts with the probabilities.
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With a car accident, you and at most a few other people would pay a price for it. With a highly communicable disease, you wouldn't just pay the price for being infected, you'd also be infecting countless others and forcing them to pay a price as well. Though.
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It's the superfund site of a new generation
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You should consider the fact that the risk is much more volatile (in either direction), unlike car accidents
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well, there's the community angle too. You are not just sick, you are also a vector. Same way, you could kill other people in the car accident. for some reason, those count stronger for me.
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Something about this logic seems off but i can't explain it clearly right now/yet
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Yeah I couldn't it figure out either. Maybe odds' change over time: accidents are constant, I get 450 years of safe driving for one crash. Great. But epidemic is time bound - I'm not getting 50 parties for one virus, I'm getting ~2. The rest were always going to be safe.
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Avg risk of infection is at least 1/3 based on the Harvard assessment of 40-70%. Maybe 2/3 or higher. There's also long term damage to consider, both in terms of your own health and spreading it to other people. If you're in SF and going to parties at this point, the risk is 100%
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That is close to my rule for common cold. 10 parties ~ 1 cold. If I get coronavirus at a party, then my attendance cost somebody else ~3 years of life, I likely killed somebody. I am at loss how many parties would outweight that guilt.
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Oh I know. I just do not want to share how bad person I am.
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