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Aella_Girl's profile
Aella
Aella
Aella
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@Aella_Girl

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AellaVerified account

@Aella_Girl

whorelord http://aella.hns.to 

Austin
knowingless.com
Joined September 2012

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    1. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 4 Mar 2020

      My personal risk assessment strategy is to do something like: if my chance of car accident is 1/450 per year, would I pay one car accident in order to get 450 years of driving? If yes, then I drive. I do this for nearly all my risk assessments and I'm wondering how common it is.

      33 replies 13 retweets 196 likes
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      Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 8 Mar 2020

      So for coronavirus, what's the min amount of parties or large events I'd pay 1 coronavirus infection to attend? Probably something like 50. So, roughly, coronavirus risk has to be greater than 1/50 before I won't attend an event.

      8:46 PM - 8 Mar 2020
      • 16 Likes
      • A SARS-CoV-2 Virus Sam 🌾 Uolf Murschetg Ulf Dagner Jim Duehr Your feet are absolutely Poggers Diana S. Fleischman priya Don't ever put me in a situation
      11 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
        1. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          Gary Basin Retweeted Gary Basin

          https://twitter.com/garybasin/status/1236789013614395394?s=19 …

          Gary Basin added,

          Gary Basin @garybasin
          5/ deaths won't be the big problem. I'm more worried about long-term damage to survivors, including young people https://twitter.com/FYang_EP/status/1236723843097649154?s=19 … https://twitter.com/MimeticValue/status/1236788521383235586?s=19 …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Improv‏ @dachte 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          Consider how the categorical imperative interacts with the probabilities.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Paul Tenny‏ @pwtenny 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          With a car accident, you and at most a few other people would pay a price for it. With a highly communicable disease, you wouldn't just pay the price for being infected, you'd also be infecting countless others and forcing them to pay a price as well. Though.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. Dr. Spacey B, PhD‏ @Space_Boy_Ben 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @pwtenny @Aella_Girl

          It's the superfund site of a new generation

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Adrian‏ @AstroAdrian 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          You should consider the fact that the risk is much more volatile (in either direction), unlike car accidents

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Henri Kester‏ @kets70 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          well, there's the community angle too. You are not just sick, you are also a vector. Same way, you could kill other people in the car accident. for some reason, those count stronger for me.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Moth of Candle‏ @rothosphere 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          Something about this logic seems off but i can't explain it clearly right now/yet

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. JP‏ @inflammateomnia 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @rothosphere @Aella_Girl

          Yeah I couldn't it figure out either. Maybe odds' change over time: accidents are constant, I get 450 years of safe driving for one crash. Great. But epidemic is time bound - I'm not getting 50 parties for one virus, I'm getting ~2. The rest were always going to be safe.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. James MacFadden‏ @jimmy_macfadden 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          Avg risk of infection is at least 1/3 based on the Harvard assessment of 40-70%. Maybe 2/3 or higher. There's also long term damage to consider, both in terms of your own health and spreading it to other people. If you're in SF and going to parties at this point, the risk is 100%

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Harriet‏ @Harriet21789542 9 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          That is close to my rule for common cold. 10 parties ~ 1 cold. If I get coronavirus at a party, then my attendance cost somebody else ~3 years of life, I likely killed somebody. I am at loss how many parties would outweight that guilt.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Harriet‏ @Harriet21789542 9 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Harriet21789542 @Aella_Girl

          Oh I know. I just do not want to share how bad person I am.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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