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Aella_Girl's profile
Aella
Aella
Aella
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@Aella_Girl

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AellaVerified account

@Aella_Girl

whorelord http://aella.hns.to 

Austin
knowingless.com
Joined September 2012

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    1. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 4 Mar 2020

      My personal risk assessment strategy is to do something like: if my chance of car accident is 1/450 per year, would I pay one car accident in order to get 450 years of driving? If yes, then I drive. I do this for nearly all my risk assessments and I'm wondering how common it is.

      33 replies 13 retweets 196 likes
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    2. Lumifer‏ @lumiferrous 4 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Aella_Girl

      That's not how it works. If the chance of accident is 1/450 per year, your chance of going n years without an accident is (449/450)^n For 100 years it's about 80%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
    3. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 4 Mar 2020
      Replying to @lumiferrous

      I'm not that schooled on probability, but I'm imagining a bunch of red dots, thousands of them. Randomly speckled in at an average of 1 every 450, there is a blue dot. What is the chance that, for any given red dot, there's at least 449 red dots between the blues on either side?

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Lumifer‏ @lumiferrous 4 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Aella_Girl

      With a sequence it's easier. Do coin tosses: the chance of one head is 0.5. The chance of two consecutive heads is (head AND head) = (0.5 * 0 5) = 0.5^2 = 0.25. For three consecutive heads it's 0.5^3 = 0.125, etc. Same thing with chances of having n years without an accident.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 4 Mar 2020
      Replying to @lumiferrous

      But I don't need consecutive years.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Lumifer‏ @lumiferrous 4 Mar 2020
      Replying to @Aella_Girl

      Yes, you do. Because that's how time works.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 4 Mar 2020
      Replying to @lumiferrous

      No, I don't. I'm happy to sacrifice a hypothetical car accident at any point inside those 450 years.

      10:43 PM - 4 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Lumifer‏ @lumiferrous 4 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Aella_Girl

          Sacrificing hypotheticals is easy :-) But in a real car accident you might end up dead or crippled which would stop your road trip through 450 years.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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