My personal risk assessment strategy is to do something like: if my chance of car accident is 1/450 per year, would I pay one car accident in order to get 450 years of driving? If yes, then I drive. I do this for nearly all my risk assessments and I'm wondering how common it is.
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But if your understanding of probability is wrong, your judgement calls will be wrong as well
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She is right. This is just totally normal expected value calculations. The average time it takes for an event with probability x to happen is 1/x. The times it happens in less than 1/x are outweighed by the times it goes longer
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Would astrology too be a consistent way to estimate risks? It may also give _some_ output as a black box
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