My personal risk assessment strategy is to do something like: if my chance of car accident is 1/450 per year, would I pay one car accident in order to get 450 years of driving? If yes, then I drive. I do this for nearly all my risk assessments and I'm wondering how common it is.
wouldn't it be 50%? Tho ofc this isn't the same as "for every red dot I pick, what is the chance I hit a blue dot if I move x spaces down the line", which is what you're talking about?
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But anyway that's not really the point of this; I don't know much about probability but I know it's real fucky and unintuitive; my thought experiment is just to help me personally hit judgment calls and have a consistent way of evaluating risk across decisions.
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But if your understanding of probability is wrong, your judgement calls will be wrong as well
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