body { -ms-overflow-style: scrollbar; overflow-y: scroll; overscroll-behavior-y: none; } .errorContainer { background-color: #FFF; color: #0F1419; max-width: 600px; margin: 0 auto; padding: 10%; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; } .errorButton { margin: 3em 0; } .errorButton a { background: #1DA1F2; border-radius: 2.5em; color: white; padding: 1em 2em; text-decoration: none; } .errorButton a:hover, .errorButton a:focus { background: rgb(26, 145, 218); } .errorFooter { color: #657786; font-size: 80%; line-height: 1.5; padding: 1em 0; } .errorFooter a, .errorFooter a:visited { color: #657786; text-decoration: none; padding-right: 1em; } .errorFooter a:hover, .errorFooter a:active { text-decoration: underline; } #placeholder, #react-root { display: none !important; } body { background-color: #FFF !important; }

JavaScript is not available.

We’ve detected that JavaScript is disabled in this browser. Please enable JavaScript or switch to a supported browser to continue using twitter.com. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.

Terms of Service Privacy Policy Cookie Policy Imprint Ads info © 2023 Twitter, Inc.

Conversation

My personal risk assessment strategy is to do something like: if my chance of car accident is 1/450 per year, would I pay one car accident in order to get 450 years of driving? If yes, then I drive. I do this for nearly all my risk assessments and I'm wondering how common it is.

30

16

186

You’re unable to view this Tweet because this account owner limits who can view their Tweets. Learn more

Replying to

If I estimate 1/100 chance of food shortage during coronavirus, then would I pay 1 starvation to save 100*(cost of food prep, ~$30 of rice)? No, I would not pay one starvation to save 3000. So I food prepped.

5:32 AM · Mar 5, 2020

Replying to

and

This requires 1% chance of such bad food shortage that you starve - one might pay 2 weeks of highly rationed eating for $3000. (I think the math goes in favor too, but food shortage != starvation.)