So for coronavirus, what's the min amount of parties or large events I'd pay 1 coronavirus infection to attend? Probably something like 50. So, roughly, coronavirus risk has to be greater than 1/50 before I won't attend an event.
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Can you list off more, and rates of occurrence you’ve found?
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If I estimate 1/100 chance of food shortage during coronavirus, then would I pay 1 starvation to save 100*(cost of food prep, ~$30 of rice)? No, I would not pay one starvation to save 3000. So I food prepped.
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It's certainly a good technique for persuading yourself to do whatever you want.
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This Tweet is unavailable.
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Fun fact you will hate; if you have a choice of whether to walk or drive somewhere, it's more than ten times more dangerous to walk there, because fatal pedestrian accidents are more common on a per mile basis.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort
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Doesn’t that stat mean 1 car ride out of 450 car rides will result in a crash? Not 1 crash out of 450 years. Unless you only rode in a car once per year. Now I’m confused about how to interpret that stat.
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Maybe the tweet above is accurate, but something something probability is counterintuitive. Like, your risk of car accident after driving for 450 years is still strictly less than 100%. And compounding probabilities can act weird Can a person who knows probability comment please
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[lights cigarette] life is improbable
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I think of the universe as Deterministic. Every event has already happened so nothing I do can change it. We don't live in the present. Our senses lag behind reality. So an event either happens or it doesn't. so yeah 50 /50. No prep needed for COVID-19.
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I don't think that's how determinism works.
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