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Aella_Girl's profile
Aella
Aella
Aella
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@Aella_Girl

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@Aella_Girl

whorelord http://aella.hns.to 

Austin
knowingless.com
Joined September 2012

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    Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 4 Mar 2020

    My personal risk assessment strategy is to do something like: if my chance of car accident is 1/450 per year, would I pay one car accident in order to get 450 years of driving? If yes, then I drive. I do this for nearly all my risk assessments and I'm wondering how common it is.

    9:23 PM - 4 Mar 2020
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    • ˚⁎☆〜˳✧༚ Sam 🌾 Jim Duehr Arion ⊃∪∩⪽ Harriet Ethan Webman Melanie Weisner Luan Côrtes Vince
    33 replies 13 retweets 196 likes
      1. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 8 Mar 2020

        So for coronavirus, what's the min amount of parties or large events I'd pay 1 coronavirus infection to attend? Probably something like 50. So, roughly, coronavirus risk has to be greater than 1/50 before I won't attend an event.

        11 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
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      2. pm‏Verified account @pm 4 Mar 2020
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        Can you list off more, and rates of occurrence you’ve found?

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 4 Mar 2020
        Replying to @pm

        If I estimate 1/100 chance of food shortage during coronavirus, then would I pay 1 starvation to save 100*(cost of food prep, ~$30 of rice)? No, I would not pay one starvation to save 3000. So I food prepped.

        2 replies 1 retweet 27 likes
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      1. alexholden.eth  🇧🇸‏ @NassauAlex 4 Mar 2020
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        It's certainly a good technique for persuading yourself to do whatever you want.

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      2. mariellev⬡lz‏ @mariellevolz 4 Mar 2020
        Replying to @alicemazzy @Aella_Girl @drethelin

        Fun fact you will hate; if you have a choice of whether to walk or drive somewhere, it's more than ten times more dangerous to walk there, because fatal pedestrian accidents are more common on a per mile basis.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort 

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. anonymoose‏ @madaastronaut 4 Mar 2020
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        Doesn’t that stat mean 1 car ride out of 450 car rides will result in a crash? Not 1 crash out of 450 years. Unless you only rode in a car once per year. Now I’m confused about how to interpret that stat.

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      2. Moth of Candle‏ @rothosphere 4 Mar 2020
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        Maybe the tweet above is accurate, but something something probability is counterintuitive. Like, your risk of car accident after driving for 450 years is still strictly less than 100%. And compounding probabilities can act weird Can a person who knows probability comment please

        6 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      3. visa is catching up on... tasks‏ @visakanv 4 Mar 2020
        Replying to @rothosphere @Aella_Girl

        [lights cigarette] life is improbable

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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      2. Soulcatch‏ @Soulcatch 4 Mar 2020
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        I think of the universe as Deterministic. Every event has already happened so nothing I do can change it. We don't live in the present. Our senses lag behind reality. So an event either happens or it doesn't. so yeah 50 /50. No prep needed for COVID-19.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Mr. Ask‏ @AlysonAsK 5 Mar 2020
        Replying to @Soulcatch @Aella_Girl

        I don't think that's how determinism works.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation

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