My personal risk assessment strategy is to do something like: if my chance of car accident is 1/450 per year, would I pay one car accident in order to get 450 years of driving? If yes, then I drive.
I do this for nearly all my risk assessments and I'm wondering how common it is.
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So for coronavirus, what's the min amount of parties or large events I'd pay 1 coronavirus infection to attend? Probably something like 50.
So, roughly, coronavirus risk has to be greater than 1/50 before I won't attend an event.
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That's not how it works.
If the chance of accident is 1/450 per year, your chance of going n years without an accident is (449/450)^n
For 100 years it's about 80%.
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I'm not that schooled on probability, but I'm imagining a bunch of red dots, thousands of them. Randomly speckled in at an average of 1 every 450, there is a blue dot.
What is the chance that, for any given red dot, there's at least 449 red dots between the blues on either side?
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Actually maybe you're right, I had the 450 number in my head from someone and it might be risk of death.
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If I estimate 1/100 chance of food shortage during coronavirus, then would I pay 1 starvation to save 100*(cost of food prep, ~$30 of rice)?
No, I would not pay one starvation to save 3000. So I food prepped.
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Same. It is harder to assess though when the thing becomes truly catastrophic, usually physically or financially, especially when unsure of the probability.
It is easier to do with things like when to arrive at an airport or even speeding.