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Conversation

What process do you use when you settle on a percentage when predicting the likelihood of something happening?

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...I don't. People actually decide "there's a 90% chance of"? Or are you talking specifically Statistics and Probability?

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I... Do this all the time? I was trying to figure out what number id assign to the chance this person I'm about to meet won't show up

8:48 PM · Dec 17, 2019

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I use intuition. Are there other methods?

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and

I guess it's different depending on the scenario. The situation you mention it would be, is it a friend, have they cancelled before, what are their tendencies to follow through what they say etc

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persona non grata

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Interesting. I’m not sure I’ve ever done this on something like that. Like ever. It’s not even on my radar to consider doing it (until now). Why do you do it?

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I think to myself “if I were to repeat this same event in the same set of circumstances 10 times, the likelihood is that the thing would happen X times out of the 10.” And I feel it out from there.