What process do you use when you settle on a percentage when predicting the likelihood of something happening?
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I use intuition. Are there other methods?
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Bayesian analysis
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I guess it's different depending on the scenario. The situation you mention it would be, is it a friend, have they cancelled before, what are their tendencies to follow through what they say etc
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Interesting. I’m not sure I’ve ever done this on something like that. Like ever. It’s not even on my radar to consider doing it (until now). Why do you do it?
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I mean, I just assume I have incomplete information and am biased so would veer toward a desired result. I guess it could be useful to discover your desires or biases but otherwise I just don’t unless it’s tangible and measurable
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I think to myself “if I were to repeat this same event in the same set of circumstances 10 times, the likelihood is that the thing would happen X times out of the 10.” And I feel it out from there.
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Why not do a frequentist past analysis (maybe with minimum count of 1 for each possibility renormalized)?
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