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Aella_Girl's profile
Aella
Aella
Aella
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@Aella_Girl

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@Aella_Girl

whorelord http://aella.hns.to 

Austin
knowingless.com
Joined September 2012

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    1. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 17 Dec 2019

      What process do you use when you settle on a percentage when predicting the likelihood of something happening?

      58 replies 1 retweet 44 likes
    2. Sam'el Hall‏ @DamnedEyez 17 Dec 2019
      Replying to @Aella_Girl

      ...I don't. People actually decide "there's a 90% chance of"? Or are you talking specifically Statistics and Probability?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 17 Dec 2019
      Replying to @DamnedEyez

      I... Do this all the time? I was trying to figure out what number id assign to the chance this person I'm about to meet won't show up

      12:48 PM - 17 Dec 2019
      • 9 Likes
      • Adam Smith Jr. Divia Eden disagreeable lawn carrot (day ??/30) Mike Nikitas Angeletos Chrysaitis Robby Grossman hamiltonianurst Clayto's Corner
      5 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Herr Doktor Paul Bullen‏ @paulbullen 17 Dec 2019
          Replying to @Aella_Girl @DamnedEyez

          I use intuition. Are there other methods?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Cole Dutcher‏ @coledutcher 17 Dec 2019
          Replying to @paulbullen @Aella_Girl @DamnedEyez

          Bayesian analysis

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Liam‏ @Liam_1009 17 Dec 2019
          Replying to @Aella_Girl @DamnedEyez

          I guess it's different depending on the scenario. The situation you mention it would be, is it a friend, have they cancelled before, what are their tendencies to follow through what they say etc

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. persona non grata‏ @PeaDubyah 17 Dec 2019
          Replying to @Aella_Girl @DamnedEyez

          Interesting. I’m not sure I’ve ever done this on something like that. Like ever. It’s not even on my radar to consider doing it (until now). Why do you do it?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. persona non grata‏ @PeaDubyah 17 Dec 2019
          Replying to @PeaDubyah @Aella_Girl @DamnedEyez

          I mean, I just assume I have incomplete information and am biased so would veer toward a desired result. I guess it could be useful to discover your desires or biases but otherwise I just don’t unless it’s tangible and measurable

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Mike‏ @MikeSFO1980 17 Dec 2019
          Replying to @Aella_Girl @DamnedEyez

          I think to myself “if I were to repeat this same event in the same set of circumstances 10 times, the likelihood is that the thing would happen X times out of the 10.” And I feel it out from there.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Risk Designer‏ @riskdesigner 18 Dec 2019
          Replying to @Aella_Girl @DamnedEyez

          Why not do a frequentist past analysis (maybe with minimum count of 1 for each possibility renormalized)?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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