What process do you use when you settle on a percentage when predicting the likelihood of something happening?
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...I don't. People actually decide "there's a 90% chance of"? Or are you talking specifically Statistics and Probability?
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I... Do this all the time? I was trying to figure out what number id assign to the chance this person I'm about to meet won't show up
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Whatever outcome my mind wants I reduce by 30-40 and that’s the likelihood i “emotionally” and “financially/or otherwise” hedge for
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I think this is ~the only reply that calls out discounting your calculation on the outcome you want to happen, and I think its importance can't be overstated (we shouldn't trust our opinions in areas we're likely to have motivated reasoning)
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Solomonoff induction. /s
One test I do is ask myself if I'd be willing to accept a bet according to those odds e.g. 90% -> willing to bet anything less than $9 for a $1 return.
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Ask whether, in a position where I was neither so rich the sum was irrelevant or so poor as to be risk averse, I'd accept a secret bet on it at the corresponding odds.
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I instinctively pick a plausible number, update if it seems too high or too low, split the difference when I can't decide between two numbers.
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I try to avoid percentages unless I have access to data that can be converted to percentages.
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