The Hat Method
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Ask whether, in a position where I was neither so rich the sum was irrelevant or so poor as to be risk averse, I'd accept a secret bet on it at the corresponding odds.
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I just try to look like I'm thinking an then take one of favourite numbers, 20% or some such, 75% of the time.
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lay out all influencing factors, my current state, historical data, margin of error
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I instinctively pick a plausible number, update if it seems too high or too low, split the difference when I can't decide between two numbers.
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...I don't. People actually decide "there's a 90% chance of"? Or are you talking specifically Statistics and Probability?
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I... Do this all the time? I was trying to figure out what number id assign to the chance this person I'm about to meet won't show up
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I try to avoid percentages unless I have access to data that can be converted to percentages.
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Roll two 10 sided dice of different colors. Choose one to be the tens and the other the units.
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Is it more likely to happen? If so, over 50%. Am I almost certain it will happen? If so, over 75%. If I want to exaggerate, 100%.
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I'd put almost certain at 95%. 75% is 'confident'.
End of conversation
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