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Aella_Girl's profile
Aella
Aella
Aella
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@Aella_Girl

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AellaVerified account

@Aella_Girl

whorelord http://aella.hns.to 

Austin
knowingless.com
Joined September 2012

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    Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 17 Dec 2019

    What process do you use when you settle on a percentage when predicting the likelihood of something happening?

    12:41 PM - 17 Dec 2019
    • 1 Retweet
    • 44 Likes
    • Piotr Migdal Risk Designer Elon´s Padawan Michael Keenan (Just)Jordan Divia Eden Danish muh Toxic Happy Hour 🥩🥩 golden phantom (50(1 + sqrt(5))/100) Giacomo Zucco (I identify as a LARPer)
    58 replies 1 retweet 44 likes
      1. Morgio Zoroger‏ @fixthemad 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        The Hat Method

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Andre Infante‏ @AndreTI 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        Ask whether, in a position where I was neither so rich the sum was irrelevant or so poor as to be risk averse, I'd accept a secret bet on it at the corresponding odds.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. aspiring flippist vector‏ @VectorOfBasis 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @AndreTI @Aella_Girl

        I just try to look like I'm thinking an then take one of favourite numbers, 20% or some such, 75% of the time.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. "COASTAL" OUT NOW!! 🌴 🌐 🌴‏ @bandeauxx 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        lay out all influencing factors, my current state, historical data, margin of error

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Kyle Bogosian  💡‏ @KyleBogosian 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        I instinctively pick a plausible number, update if it seems too high or too low, split the difference when I can't decide between two numbers.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Sam'el Hall‏ @DamnedEyez 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        ...I don't. People actually decide "there's a 90% chance of"? Or are you talking specifically Statistics and Probability?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Aella‏Verified account @Aella_Girl 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @DamnedEyez

        I... Do this all the time? I was trying to figure out what number id assign to the chance this person I'm about to meet won't show up

        5 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Sam Lowen‏ @samlowen5105 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        I try to avoid percentages unless I have access to data that can be converted to percentages.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Robbie Carlton‏ @robbie_carlton 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        Roll two 10 sided dice of different colors. Choose one to be the tens and the other the units.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Dogrules23  ✊🏻 ✊🏼 ✊🏽 ✊🏾 ✊🏿‏ @Dogrules23 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @Aella_Girl

        Is it more likely to happen? If so, over 50%. Am I almost certain it will happen? If so, over 75%. If I want to exaggerate, 100%.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Wealth and Hellfare‏ @Minimum_Max 17 Dec 2019
        Replying to @Dogrules23 @Aella_Girl

        I'd put almost certain at 95%. 75% is 'confident'.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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