Conversation

Aella
@Aella_Girl
A candidate's promise as president is this: He'l hire the top 50 people in the country, educated or not, who can make the most accurate possible predictions based on large, complicated data. He will have them vote on the outcomes of his potential actions, and then follow that.
  • I'd vote for him
    57.3%
  • Would not vote for him
    42.7%
1,749 votesFinal results
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david rein
@idavidrein
Replying to
@Aella_Girl
even if each person has only a .00000001 chance of guessing correct predictions, it's still 95% likely that at least 1 person out of the 300,000,000 U.S. pop. will guess everything correctly
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Aella
@Aella_Girl
Replying to
@idavidrein
Imagine you have a huge and incredibly difficult math test. The lucky 1 person in the US accidentally gets it all correct. You pull him out and sit him down. How hard would it be to figure out if he were actually good at math?
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Likes
david rein
@idavidrein
Replying to
@Aella_Girl
good point, normal filters would still be used. in a separate point, do you think prediction is a bottleneck for policy decisions that can be greatly improved? Aside from trump, my impression is that lots of people (cabinet + staff + etc.) already think hard & well about outcomes
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