Conversation

A candidate's promise as president is this: He'l hire the top 50 people in the country, educated or not, who can make the most accurate possible predictions based on large, complicated data. He will have them vote on the outcomes of his potential actions, and then follow that.

I'd vote for him
57.3%
Would not vote for him
42.7%

1,749 votesFinal results

Replying to

I’ve never seen a single person, let alone 50 who can accurately predict anything with any consistency. Would have to call BS in this candidate.

Aella

@Aella_Girl

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@ElBueno415

I'm thinking of the study where they tested predictions of a huge amount of people, and found the tiny percentage that were uncannily good. A person this good at predicting is probably not someone you've ever met.

7:04 PM · Nov 14, 2019

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It’s reminiscent of clergy where some priest (in this case a super predictor) has access to knowledge beyond the regular person. A power that’s way too easy to corrupt. They’d need to do a lot to ensure they weren’t just being manipulative.

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and

It wasn't that a tiny minority was uncannily good, it was that skill varied but was replicable, and the study focused on the top 2% and what made them good. The distribution was still normal, not bimodal.

Replying to

and

I'd want to see the details of the study. With a set # of predictions and a large enough sample population random chance will have a few people that happen to get an uncanny number right. That doesn't necessarily mean their next predictions will be more right than anyone else.