A candidate's promise as president is this: He'l hire the top 50 people in the country, educated or not, who can make the most accurate possible predictions based on large, complicated data. He will have them vote on the outcomes of his potential actions, and then follow that.
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I’ve never seen a single person, let alone 50 who can accurately predict anything with any consistency. Would have to call BS in this candidate.
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I'm thinking of the study where they tested predictions of a huge amount of people, and found the tiny percentage that were uncannily good. A person this good at predicting is probably not someone you've ever met.
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even if each person has only a .00000001 chance of guessing correct predictions, it's still 95% likely that at least 1 person out of the 300,000,000 U.S. pop. will guess everything correctly
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Imagine you have a huge and incredibly difficult math test. The lucky 1 person in the US accidentally gets it all correct. You pull him out and sit him down. How hard would it be to figure out if he were actually good at math?
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The key problem is not that this is a bad idea, but that it is hard for a voter to tell whether it is actually being faithfully executed.
Principal-agent problem.
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i really wish all of our current candidates for president would outsource their decision making to someone better qualified
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Yes, I support making educated, informed decisions over... whatever it is they’re doing now.
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Interesting idea! Would like to see it at a smaller scale first. I feel like good political leadership needs more than just strong foresight.
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It doesn't matter what his "panel" suggests to him or what he does with that advice. It still has to be passed by the morons in Congress who don't do a damn thing unless they're paid by a special interest group.
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