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Conversation

Prediction: Will Trump win the 2020 presidential elections?

High confidence yes
19.2%
Low confidence yes
40.9%
Low confidence no
31.9%
High confidence no
8%

1,540 votesFinal results

6:34 PM · Nov 5, 2019

walter rosenbaum

@RosenbaumWalter

Replying to

Begrudgingly believe yes.

1

@lawrencegillies

Replying to

Low confidence no. I dont think he will, but I called both the last time and Brexit wrong, so confidence is low

Replying to

I think it depends too much on the Democratic nominee this time around to predict yet. If the nominee is a progressive candidate (Warren, Sanders) then High Confidence No, if the nominee is a party leadership "nothing will change" hack (Biden, Harris) then High Confidence Yes.

2

Replying to

I would hope not, but whoever wins will only do exactly what he was going to do while using different words and pandering to different demographics.

@DiracWinsAgain

Replying to

I really want to take 60:40 bets from some of you high confidence people, free money for you, right?

@PrototypeChaos

Replying to

If wins I quit humanity forever

Replying to

Sadly, yes. Where is the candidate who can beat him?

Replying to

Saying with high confidence that "low confidence yes" is the only acceptable answer.