When it comes to conspiracy theories, I have a few rules:
1. If I were the conspirator, what would be the most sensible thing to do?
2. Things are more complicated and nuanced than they seem
3. Irrationality and mistakes exist. If a narrative is too clean, then it's suspicious.
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For Epstein:
1. Would "suiciding" Epstein reduce suspicion in me? Were there any other, more sensible ways to achieve that?
2. My motivations would be subject to a lot of different pushes and pulls
3. It's possible the guards were actually just negligent with no other motive.
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For 9/11:
1. Would false flagging actually be the best way to get oil (or whatever else I wanted?)
2. Pulling something off of that magnitude yourself without people knowing would be really complicated
3. It's possible everybody was just stupid and negligent
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I like the 9/11-was-an-inside-job conspiracy theory, I think it's one of my favorites. But the narrative around the conspiracy feels a little suspiciously clean to me. If I imagine being the mastermind behind it, it starts to feel closer to a thriller movie.
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idle thought: sometimes you can hide in plain sight by doing the thing that everyone else thinks is way too obvious and way too ridiculous for anybody to do. smile and wave at the cashier when shoplifting
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yup. I think I first came across this concept on a tv show (or a kid's cartoon??)
There are a few times that I've gotten into clubs or events by smiling and greeting the tix-people and simply walking past them
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Mitchell and Webb have a delightful sketch on this. Worth visiting Youtube for it.
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FWIW a formalization of the "if a narrative is too clean" objection...
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What do you think about the whole Area51 thing and those "Roswell Conspiracies" ? 🤔