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I personally don't 'get' what women mean when they talk about experiencing sexism and harassment and lack of safety - I don't relate to it or experience it very much, and I know some other women who agree. It's weird the disparity here, that some women report so much trouble...
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It may not fit with her narrative, but your explanation doesn't fit with the evidence. The idea that it's purely luck is clearly wrong. For that to be true, those who engage in violent criminality wouldn't be at increased risk of being a victim of violence. Absurd, of course.
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I'm not really interested in blame, but I am interested in cause and effect. It seems true that some women get catcalled more than others (e.g., it rarely happens to me but a lot to some friends) even compared across the same cities or habits. Why do you think that is?