1)who said to guess the outcome? 2)rationality only requires that you maximize utility. No one gave any utilities here.
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(you are asked to imagine an outcome, not to guess one that has happened already)
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because no one asked me to imagine a "probable" outcome. Also, its worth pointing out that no one said, either, that the spin is randomizing. So there is no stipulated probability, even.
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Try this: "Imagine a person with a six-shooter revolver with one bullet in one chamber who spins the revolver and points the gun to his head and pulls the trigger. What do you see?" I guarantee many people who understand prob perfectly well see a dead person. Many other...
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things can determine what you imagine than the probabilities. try it with a lottery ticket. many people will imagine winning. doesn't mean they dont understand prob.
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Seems like you're too focussed on the word "imagine," because other than that it's a probability question with, I think, lots of missing data.
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I'm too focused on the actual question?
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Seems like a pretty dry bone to be gnawing, but in any case I have nothing else to add until she clarifies whether she's curious about how people imagine random things or intuit probabilities.
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I came up with the question when I was falling asleep and trying to imagine a spinner stopping 'randomly,' and finding it super hard to allow my brain to do something that felt 'random.' This question was mostly an excuse to make others try to do randomness visually
I've asked over a thousand twitter polls, a lot of which are meta probability polls, and so the fact this turned out mostly 80/20 is very unsurprising to me. The group mind usually works out really well.
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